What are the chances of getting caught downloading music?

so i have a friend who's downloaded upwards of 1,500 songs through torrents and he's never been caught. i'm thinking of downloading some songs like this but im not sure if i should cause the fines can be up to like 250k per song and its stealing. anyway, what are the chances of getting caught if i just downloaded some songs or a movie via torrents but didnt distribute them at all?